Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
