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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.